Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 199.732285 243.016740 296.794261 369.768620 468.212561 5.994678e+02 7.932061e+02
2025-05-04 153.094790 203.937396 275.595536 388.327013 570.162410 8.702807e+02 1.449950e+03
2025-05-11 126.147139 178.548540 259.109856 400.309166 662.296876 1.181199e+03 2.479255e+03
2025-05-18 107.220396 158.638130 242.987098 403.822808 738.752613 1.518695e+03 4.042364e+03
2025-05-25 92.226303 141.070576 225.266390 396.854386 789.921912 1.845723e+03 6.249314e+03
2025-06-01 80.347863 126.168978 208.342136 385.209364 824.686314 2.167718e+03 9.406390e+03
2025-06-08 70.951081 113.852633 193.372796 372.696133 851.391111 2.500750e+03 1.411093e+04
2025-06-15 68.360829 113.171058 200.324735 411.053897 1039.943356 3.685870e+03 3.519941e+04
2025-06-22 63.044730 106.527782 193.847668 415.255397 1130.455338 4.636613e+03 7.345775e+04
2025-06-29 59.306964 102.336808 191.656089 429.817944 1268.917541 6.193399e+03 2.125516e+05
2025-07-06 54.744739 95.880325 183.314663 425.161838 1334.838958 7.507973e+03 6.045840e+05
2025-07-13 53.617738 96.209698 190.337224 467.258105 1634.893359 1.208919e+04 2.311748e+07
2025-07-20 51.822658 95.075787 194.181183 503.373867 1964.724155 1.986571e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 49.666551 92.885288 195.088267 531.153264 2299.142326 3.262546e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 47.278031 89.857005 193.283352 549.241126 2612.818199 5.290044e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 44.647397 85.950328 188.450455 554.561841 2858.575814 8.183896e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 41.748479 81.099254 180.252764 544.008010 2977.054075 1.140934e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 38.925770 76.141984 171.023422 526.428474 3021.922567 1.499428e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 36.354412 71.533686 162.126579 507.617838 3039.377286 1.936387e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 36.222765 72.734793 170.079031 565.538484 3955.262616 8.216554e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 34.669204 70.300073 166.913330 571.928906 4340.002885 2.201209e+06 NaN
2025-09-21 33.608526 68.979083 166.923563 594.147105 5020.980041 1.600678e+07 NaN
2025-09-28 31.970154 66.047236 161.494386 587.031704 5276.113723 1.179321e+08 NaN